Columbia, Missouri and the Housing Doom!

What does a housing boom mean? Well for the past 5 years Columbia has been the definition of this term. Homes being built left and right, new developments popping up all over town, commercial structures being sought out on every street corner and to facilitate this lending institutions and Realtors bouncing out of the wood work.

My how times have changed. The inventory of homes has sky rocketed, vacancy rates are at all time highs, and lending institutions are closing. Just over the past year we have seen HomeStar Equity Mortgage leave town, Mortgage Trust has closed, First Community Mortgage has left, TE Mortgage is now gone and the list continues.

Builders are also getting creative in finding ways to deal with an inventory problem. As reported in the Columbia Tribune on January 6, 2007, one of the largest builders in Columbia (Brandon Pace Construction) has begun a process of auctioning 24 homes. Why are some builders getting creative? This is because the market has such a plethora of inventory that homes are simply not selling like they used too. The market has become saturated with homes, would be buyers have gotten scared over the uncertainty of the housing bubble, rising interest rates and high oil prices. Look around Columbia we have multiple developments still being done. The biggest development ever in Columbia, Old Hawthorne has finally begun it's first home, to accompany this we have Copperstone, The Vinyards and Arbor Pointe just to name a few.

What must happen in order for the Columbia bubble to recede? Exactly what seems to be taken place at this very moment. Builders must halt building so many homes, building permits are down and new construction is slowing at a very fast pace. The inventory of homes must significantly decrease, unfortunately there are so many homes out there I believe this will take all of 2007' to accomplish. To help the situation the Fed must help us with rates and oil prices must fall. The later has already begun, oil prices are at an 18 month low. They have gone from upwards of $76 a barrel to below $54. Unfortunately for us the Fed moves at a turtles pace in a rabbits world!

Your comments are welcomed!