Tuesday, November 25, 2008

The Recap!

We finally have some good news to talk about! If your an avid reader of this blog you will recall that I made it known that the U.S. Government needed and wanted to help mortgage rates become "more attractive" (see blog dated 10/15/08). Well yesterday we finally saw "the hustle behind the muscle" with an unprecedented $800 billion dollar commitment to consumer borrowing costs.


They (U.S. Govt.) created the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (officially known as TALF). This entity (not operational until February 09) will purchase $100 billion in direct debt from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Another $500 billion will be directed to Agency TBA MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities).....that's great news for mortgage rates! The remaining $200 billion will be vested into asset backed securities involving student loans, auto loans, credit cards and SBA (Small Business Association) loans. No matter how you look at this, these moves are much needed, overdue and outright awesome for our industry! The caveat to this will be the long-term repercussions of this cash influx into the U.S. financial system? What do I mean? The U.S. Government is taking extraordinary albeit necessary risks to free up market liquidity and promote key economic growth (GDP down .5% for the third quarter). How will this never-ending tale end up? Will there be huge defaults, will we have to print money, what will the U.S. debt load look like 3 years from now, and how will we pay it off?

The answers to these questions are unknown however, the one certainty in all of this are these actions are necessary and I am very much glad to see them coming!


Those of you that do business with PMG, Inc. noticed that I not only predicted these types of moves but I also sent this information out over five and a half hours before my closest competitor. Will these gains and low rates hold? I would like to think so especially since this rally didn't even involve the $500 billion yet to come from the U.S. Government. This money has yet to hit the MBS market rather the gains we did see were from pure speculators and other financial institutions like Hedge Funds, Asian Banks and U.S. wholesale institutions. I like our chances to hold some modest to impressive gains albeit we will see some continued choppiness . That will not go away on such news but at least we had great news none the less.


On another note you may have seen that GM recently pulled a $7 million a year contract with Tiger Woods. Can I say "I told you so" (see blog post dated 11/12/08)? Professional sports, teams and franchises are having extremely difficult times in justifying the huge amounts of money they pay to advertise on this front! We will continue to see companies pull out of the sports arena because they simply cannot afford the expenses associated with today's economic environment. In turn we will continue to see large changes in sports like golf, Nascar, football, baseball and many other popular sports as the owners of these teams deal with the reality of today's environment!



Brought to you by Shawn Von Talge of Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.

Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

Typical Monday...But Extraordinary Tuesday!!!

While yesterday was just another run of the mill Monday that brought more bad news, Tuesday is something FAR different. We woke up today with the News that the government is pumping extraordinary amounts of money into Mortgage Backed Securities and other instruments to help bring out economy back to life! $500 Billion of this money is going directly into MBS's and this will bode well for mortgage rates. We are expected to see rates in the mid 5's when these move take full effect. Remember when MBS prices go up, mortgage rates go down. So this is great news. If the past 2 years have taught us anything, we know now to not just sit back and see how it all plays out. The rate drop could very well be here and gone in short order! We just can't predict our markets in their current state even with such a swift kick in the butt like this cash injection! So if you are a prospective buyer or in the market for a refinance, I would get your application in right away! If you are an agent with some clients on the fence, I would recommend informing them of this news! Details of this program along with President Elect Obama's economic plan are still coming out so check back here for updates. There should be plenty of new information as the day and week progresses. This post could get very lengthy if I went into all the details of this, but I know you don't want to hear it. Rates are improving and that is the important thing! After all, we have some applications to start working on!

Brought to you by:
Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Typical Monday....Another Bailout

Over the weekend the U.S. Government again opened its hand to another failing financial institution otherwise known as Citigroup. It received a $20 billion capital injection (on top of the $25 billion it has already received) plus a collaboration among the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation to absorb $306 billion in "troubled assets", although Citi is responsible for the first $29 billion in losses and possibly more.

On another note GM said that the board is not opposed to considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy to help itself through the global credit crisis. Congress rejected the auto makers "begging" for at least $25 billion to stay afloat. Representatives asked that the "Big Three" draft a detailed "layout" of their operating infrastructure, innovations and commitment to fuel efficient auto's before any money would be given. The auto makers have until December 2nd to provide the draft before Congress will reconvene on the matter. I am on record has stating that the auto industry is simply to big to let it fail (1.25 million would lose their jobs almost immediately) however, to think that these executives can fly to Washington on Lear Jets and simply get a "hand-out" is almost insulting to the American Taxpayer! These companies are very poorly run as they simply do a lot of things that are both inefficient, senseless (i.e. paying someone working a manufacturing line over $80K a year), and irrational.

Let's see how all of this mess shakes out. The more this drags on and the more I research about it the more I am convinced that 2009 will not be a very good year for the economy and real estate industry for that matter.

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

More of the Same......Shockwaves!

What to talk about.....there is so much happening so fast that this post cannot keep up! Let's start with Treasury Secretary Paulson deciding that the $700B appropriated by the government for the specific use of "purchasing toxic assets from financial corporations" thus freeing up their capital to lend has essentially been thrown out the window! He stated yesterday that by the time TARP was approved and passed the global situation had deteriorated to such a degree that he believed the asset purchase program would not be effective enough. "Therefore we exercised the authority granted by Congress to develop and quickly deploy a $250 billion capital injection program, fully anticipating we would follow that with a program for troubled assets purchases." I'm confused...we have been told since day one and for the week and a half leading up to the TARP bill passage (for which I was a big fan of) that the funds WOULD be used for the purchase of "toxic" assets from financial institutions. Mr. Paulson even outlined and deployed a structure to hire, facilitate and implement staff for the valuing, booking and purchasing of these assets. Now we are being told that the time and energy of this move is essentially wasted at least for it's primary purpose! I tell you what I honestly do not know what to believe, opinionate on or read for that matter when it comes to the financial market system and the U.S. government for that matter. They certainly are not doing themselves or the economy any favors by wavering on such decisions. Don't get me wrong the markets, credit availability, and economy for that matter are changing at faster speeds but to have this type of swing in philosophy because of "market conditions" is a little hard to fathom.





The bottom line and I will say it again.....YOU MUST STABILIZE HOUSING if you want to see a turn around in the economy. In fact the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) Chairman Sandy Dunn said that yesterday's home builders sentiment "shows that we are in a crisis situation. If there's any hope of turning this economy around, Congress and the Administration need to focus on stabilizing housing." Again, there are people on Capital Hill more intelligent than I but one thing I do know is that if you want a housing uptick and if you want that uptick to sustain itself for any period of time three things must happen. First, you must have mortgage rates lower than where they are currently. A 30 year fixed rate mortgage must hover between 5.25% and 5.5% for borrowers "sitting on the fence" to be enticed to take advantage of extremely low rates. In order for this to happen we need bulk buying of Mortgage Backed Securities and more than likely Asian and U.S. Government involvement to solidify confidence in this fixed income sector. Two, there must be "make sense" loans available. Sub-prime is gone, Alt-A is nearly gone and conventional has tightened so much we have gone from one extreme (loose guidelines) to the complete opposite (very tight guidelines). By "make sense" I mean do they have the ability to pay, do they have a track record of solid timely payments (even if there were extenuating circumstances that led to late pays or even bankruptcy), do they have money in the bank for a "rainy day" and does the loan (from a risk perspective) simply make sense. Yes.....these scenario's are out there I see them every day! Third and finally you must have an availability of lenders and money to access. Large financial institutions/lenders are really scared of buying back loans currently so they are really making sure they get the cream of the crop borrowers even to the point that some lenders are offering incentives if we have borrowers with 800+ fico's and send them their way.



There is a caveat to all of this and that involves risk. There will be defaults but the question is have the loans been structured in such a way to limit the default risk, do the rates being charged on these loans warrant the inherit risk and was the loan originated in the right fashion. I'm not talking about 580, 100%, stated products. But let's face it borrowers, at least at times see a rocky road. I mean there are companies that have been around for over 150 years that have been cliff diving lately. One of my main concerns about even talking about this subject is my opinion on FHA origination. In my mind we are setting ourselves up for another windfall of problems if FHA continues to originate and guarantee the volume of loans that it now sees. Just yesterday it was announced that during fiscal year 2008, the FHA endorsed over 1.2 million single-family mortgages. That's up from 532,000 in 2007! HUD credited the recent rise in FHA lending to the fall of sub prime lending, plentiful adjustable rate mortgage resets, higher FHA loan limits, and more affordable housing prices. Did you get the part that said the fall of sub prime lending? As of June 2008 the FHA's share of mortgage origination's rose to 22% skyrocketing from under 2% in early 2007. However, all that new lending has put a strain on the FHA's capital ratio, which fell to just 3% (1% above the minimum requirement) this year, down from 6.4% in fiscal year 2007. What does that mean? Bottom line they are lending more money, collecting fewer interest payments in connection with that money because default rates/foreclosures are going up! I'm not quite sure what the answer is to all of this but what I do know is that FHA will need to make some changes because the WRITING IS ON THE WALL.



Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.

Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

We May Need Your Help At Times!

With every passing day we encounter new obstacles in the lending business. As a borrower this is nothing to be scared about. If we pre-qualify you, you are in good shape. Just keep informed about the changes and how the effect you. Many people who haven't kept informed have been abruptly caught off guard. In some cases they have totally changed someones plans. In other cases those plans had to be altered slightly. Just imagine someone shopping for homes for months only to find out when they find one that there are no 100% options out there for them anymore! It has happened!
We feel we do a very good job updating everyone on the changes that have and will take place. Once you do start the loan process you just need to set your expectations properly. Our goal is to make the process as easy and pain free as possible for you. Even with this goal in mind, the numerous changes taking place make this a little more difficult than it used to be. Now don't get me wrong, the loan process is not difficult or anything to worry about. I bring this up for one reason. Don't be surprised if we need your help a bit more than we used to. Your patience and timeliness with us during these volatile times is crucial. Underwriters are asking for more and more information and continue to be super picky. If there is a document that was faxed or scanned that is tough to read in the slightest, they want a better copy. They are executing 4506T's where they didn't in the past, verifications of deposit and bank statements are being looked at a little closer too. Pretty much all aspects of the file are subject to a closer eye. On top of this, Privacy Laws are being strictly followed. In the past I could call around on your behalf to help with past collections and other odds and ends. Even though we have a signed authorization from the borrower, some companies are now not accepting these! This means we must have you make the phone calls and work on items that we normally do behind the scenes.
It is too bad it took a total collapse for lenders to realize that details were important, but they are! In the past they were so busy with loans that they overlooked items and therefore didn't condition us for them. This made the process super easy for you, but now we are all paying for it! This was of course not the only problem, but it added to the fire. We inform every client of ours what to expect once we start the loan. This way there are no surprises! We will only contact you to help us out if it is absolutely necessary. Just be prepared in case something comes up that we need a little assistance.

Brought to you by:
Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
"Your Columbia, MO Mortgage Broker"

Monday, November 17, 2008

Shockwaves Keep Coming Part II

Well, I finally get one day out of the office (Friday) and what has changed....nothing! In fact this morning Citi announced it would cut 52,000 jobs in the very near term. Citi, who employs around 352,000 as of the end of September also said it would try and reduce expenses by 20% although I have to believe the job cuts will be where the blunt of that expenditure will lie.

The bottom line in all of this economic windfall is we (you, I and the U.S. economy) are hurting! That may be the understatement of the year. Are we at the bottom, is there still room for us to fall? The answer to that question is....nobody knows. However, I will try and answer it none the less....yes and no! I truly feel things are at or near the bottom. However, I think financial analysts, traders, and even heightened professionals are gullible to say the least to think that the worst was over a year ago like many believed. We are in uncharted territory that most of the U.S. population ,with the exception of the more "seasoned" citizens have never experienced. Folks we are on VERY shaky ground right now with some laws that are going to take affect and perhaps hurt a battered industry (mortgages) even more. After watching a ton of hearings/meetings on capital hill over the past year I really do not have faith in the politicians making the calls when they can't even pronounce individuals names correctly or do not have the slightest clue on how intricate our financial system is. Even with this being the case they sit on a committee that directly impacts the decisions made!

Our system is flawed and the radical changes taking place are going from one extreme to another and the more troubling thing about it is nobody is talking about it! Yes changes need to be made, yes confidence MUST be restored, yes we need regulation but the U.S./World economy is not what it was like in the 1920's. We are far more complex with systems that are so far more intricate that it takes a manual of pages from the earth to the moon to make heads or tails of it! That's why when I see the unemployment rate hinting at 7% and I see it going to possibly 8-9% it scares me! When I see two of the most prominent indicators of the economy (real estate and auto's) struggling so mightily even in the face of Billions of dollars being thrown out every window....yes it scares me. When I see huge corporations who simply made bad business decisions get bailed out, file for bankruptcy and then get billions of dollars. While at the same time a small business owner who is great at what they do can have their occupation yanked out from underneath them!
All of this scares me! Let's see where this all shakes out, but the longer this carries on the less likely I see relief even in 2009.

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

That's Right....Shockwaves Keep Coming

Where do I start we have already been in uncharted waters for quite some time. But it seems that simply isn't enough these days as history seems to happen every day! American Express is now operating under a bank charter so it can have access to the discount window operated and controlled by the Federal Government. Otherwise, god knows what would have happened to that company. Folks this is just the beginning when it comes to these huge credit card companies that seem to do everything imaginable to keep individuals and families in debt. When families stop paying their mortgage, guess what? Their credit cards have already ceased getting payment or are not far behind. We will see a lot more news on this front in the coming months...guaranteed!

The auto industry looks to be getting some consideration from the U.S. Government in regards to some sort of bailout. Now let me go on record as saying I think this must take place. Think about how many thousands upon thousands the auto industry employs. Not just Ford, GM and Chrysler themselves but what about the companies that supply parts, technology, and materials to these companies? The auto industry, much like the housing and mortgage industry is critical to the U.S. economy! In fact if you look at history when the housing industry suffers so does the auto industry. Whether we like it or not these two industry's operate hand in hand and when one suffers the other isn't far behind. The housing industry has gotten and continues to get the much needed financial assistance from the U.S. Government and as much as I hate to say it the auto industry will need to stick it's hand out as well otherwise our problems will worsen to an extreme that would rival the Great Depression.

AIG gets ANOTHER $40B from the ever charity known as the United States. As if the first $80B wasn't enough and many analysts at that time projected they would be back for more. These huge financial companies operated on a credit basis only it seems as they all were extremely leveraged. No cash reserves considering the size, operating capacity and significance to the financial sector. It is simply baffling to me, STILL that companies that have been around for over 150 years (i.e. Bear Sterns) cannot make it through even two years of turmoil. Believe me I know things are bad perhaps worse than most people think but what happened to good fiscal accounting and savings plan?

Another item just hitting the news although not nearly as much as other happenings around the globe is the economy's affect on sports. MLB, NFL, NBA, Nascar and others are all feeling the pain as they plan for free agent signings, sponsors and their budget. Keep in mind they rely on us (the fan) to make their payroll and when we lack money to attend these events, they will lack the revenue to go out and pay huge dollars to these athletes. It's already being seen in Nascar as Ford and Chevy have "hinted" at the possibility of significantly pulling back in this ever growing popular sport. At the same time teams are having some what big problems in obtaining sponsors for their cars. In fact, some teams may have to have multiple sponsors for a single car because of the lack of cash that these companies are now spending to advertise. We truly are witnessing history with every passing hour, day, week and month. The economy is ripping through every facet of what once was seen as untouchable entities. Stay tuned things are going to get very interesting.

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

Monday, November 10, 2008

Thank You!

I wanted to take the time to thank some of our very loyal and valued business partners. Our business, industry and company model completely revolve around the realtor and the clients they refer to us. In a time when clients/buyers are hard to come by I feel extremely grateful that we have such loyal business partners/friends. We truly value your business and friendship and will continue to do everything possible to earn your referral. A special thanks to....

1) Mikki & Karl Starmer: Re/Max Fulton / Fulton, Missouri
2) Mike Hill: Weichert Realtors-First Tier / Columbia, Missouri
3) Jason Thornhill: Weichert Realtors-First Tier / Columbia, Missouri
4) Amanda Lee: Weichert Realtors-First Tier / Columbia, Missouri
5) Joy Keith: Century 21 Peak Dye / Mexico, Missouri
6) Donna Peak: Century 21 Peak Dye / Mexico, Missouri
7) Dennis Jordan House of Brokers / Columbia Missouri
8) Jay Wilson Weichert Realtors-First Tier / Columbia, Missouri
9) Tim & Nikki Kuchta 3D Realty / Columbia, Missouri
10) Elaine Swaney 3D Realty / Columbia, Missouri

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia, Missouri Mortgage Broker

Thursday, November 6, 2008

A Note To Prospective Buyers

Are you a prospective buyer in the market right now? If so, then this post is for you. We pre-qualify people everyday who are looking to get in the market. I am amazed at the uncertainty and hesitancy of many buyers today! The hot question is, "Is it a good time to buy?" While we have no idea when we will hit an absolute bottom, I wanted to point a couple items out. Columbia and the Mid-Missouri area is going through a tough time, but it is not as dire as many other areas. We did not see the high times of crazy appreciation, therefore we are not seeing the depreciation that you see in areas like Florida or California . There are deals to be found out there, you just need to set your expectations a bit. Aside from foreclosures, the last time I checked homes are selling very near their asking price in this area. It IS a great time to buy now in this area. Just do your homework to make sure you are not overpaying. As long as you do this and work with a reputable realtor you will be in good shape.
One other item that really doesn't help are the abundance of "Flip This House" concept shows on the air today. These profile investors or families negotiating a great price, completing some renovations, and then either selling the home for a nice profit or moving in themselves to enjoy the nice deal they just took advantage of. These are great and I can't stress enough how these types of opportunities are more plentiful in other parts of the country. I have actually had some success and some failure with these types of deals right here in Columbia. It can work, but these shows get people excited and I feel really offsets someones expectations. You simply cannot expect to walk in and negotiate a deal in Columbia that has a $50,000 sales price reduction, fix it up, and expect to sell it for a huge profit. Like I said there are some isolated opportunities out there, but they are hardly ever for the average joe looking to buy their primary residence. So if you are shopping for a bargain deal for your own home, just set your expectations and start shopping. It is a good time to buy and Columbia has alot to offer. While loan guidelines and pricing criteria have tightened, loans are still readily available. So happy hunting. If you are an investor, please be careful and do your homework as well. Make sure you get accurate estimates so your budget doesn't get out of whack! I am telling you now, in flipping there will be surprises and you better be ready for them!

Brought to you by"
Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
"Your Columbia, MO Mortgage Broker"

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Tips in Avoiding Foreclosure

If you are facing problems making your mortgage payments there are options available to you. To help avoid losing your home to foreclosure the following highlight some important steps that you should take.

1) Call your mortgage company right away to talk about your situation.
- It's important to act quickly because if you fall further behind in your payment,
there are fewer options to avoid foreclosure.

2) Understand your options.
- Repayment Plan: If you have missed some monthly payments, you may be able
to catch up by creating a schedule for repaying the past-due amount.

- Advance (Home Saver Advance): If your mortgage company tells you that your
loan is owned by Fannie Mae, you may be eligible for an unsecured personal loan
to help you catch up on mortgage payments.

- Modification: In some cases, mortgage loan terms can be changed on a temporary
or permanent basis to make the payment more affordable.

If you are unable to achieve or negotiate the above scenario's it may be wise to consider selling your home or perhaps the following two alternatives.

1) Short-Sale: If you cannot sell your home for the amount that will pay off the loan, talk to your mortgage company about a short sale. Depending on your situation the mortgage company may be willing to accept a payoff amount less that you owe.

2) Deed-in-Lieu: If you cannot sell your home in a reasonable period of time, your mortgage company may be willing to accept a deed where you voluntarily transfer the property to the mortgage company.

The following are some foreclosure prevention resources:

- Home Loan Learning Center
- Home Preservation Foundation
- HopeNOW
- National Foundation for Credit Counseling
- NeighborWorks America
- HUD - Tips for avoiding foreclosure
- Consumer Concerns for Older Americans

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Election Day Is Here

We all know today is Election Day. I voted early this morning and I encourage everyone to get out and do the same. This is a landmark election and your participation is as important as ever.
Most of you reading this are more than likely part of Mid-Missouri's real estate community and our nation's economy has a direct effect on our industry! Whoever we elect this evening will be in charge of leading us in a new direction. One in which we all hope will help us recover from the mess we are currently dealing with. There are many important issues out there, but it is no secret that the economy hits home for all of us! This topic has been the driving force in this election and while I know it will not happen overnight, I hope our new leader will deliver on his promises and help us return to a bit of normalcy!
I wanted to keep today's post short and sweet. We will have much more to discuss tomorrow once the results are in!
With that being said, GO VOTE!

Brought to you by:
Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Your Mortgage Loan.....Be Prepared

We have touched on a lot of different topics on this blog but I recently thought of a topic that we have yet to address in detail. What should you be doing in order to prepare yourself for what lies ahead when applying for a mortgage loan? The following points will hopefully make the process easier to understand and help you index the items that you will need to consider.

1) Know your credit score and what's on your credit: This should be the first item you look into when considering to apply for a mortgage loan. Are there any reporting errors, collection accounts that need to be resolved, or just derogatory information negatively impacting your score? You would be amazed how many reports have medical collections that individuals didn't even know were there! There are also reputable credit repair companies that for a small fee will help you address and tackle the issues of repairing or erasing derogatory or erroneous information on your credit report.

2) Locate and organize your financial documents: You will need to have two year's taxes, pay stubs, bank statements, savings statements, 401k, IRA and any other investment information readily available. You may be asked to provide a divorce decree, bankruptcy documents, Social Security Award Letters and Pension Statements as well. The bottom line here is stay organized and have this information where you can readily find it without difficulty. Should you be missing anything I would suggest you contact the necessary party (i.e. Accountant, Bank, Social Security Office, Employer, etc.) to get a copy of what you are missing.

3) Get a Good Faith Estimate and talk with a very reputable lender: The most important thing to remember here is knowing what's involved in the mortgage process, what you will be charged and where it all goes. Be sure to look at the entire package (i.e. interest rate, APR, fees, education, ethical background and knowledge of the market). The lowest rate lender in town may not be the best option for you if they don't know what their doing.

These are the three main aspects in dealing with getting home financing. The process can be much easier if you are prepared and work with a company and individual who continually educates him/herself and guides you to the options that best fit you!

Brought to you by Professional Mortgage Group, Inc.
Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker