Wacky Week

If you receive our weekly newsletter you already get feedback on the MBS market and what rates are doing from week to week. However, the process of monitoring rates on our end is a day by day and sometimes minute by minute process. We have to be on our toes at all times in order to properly serve our borrowers. When borrowers are quoted a rate, they expect us to deliver. We do this by watching the market like a hawk. By doing this we don't put ourselves in the position of quoting a rate off the cuff and not knowing what really is going on. This week was truly wacky. It was a short week due to the holiday and then Wednesday and Thursday were absolutely atrocious for mortgage rates. We have experienced a nice rebound so far today. We of course hope this continues on into next week so we can gain everything we lost. Currently all programs sit about .50% higher than they were to start the week. Not a good sign if you were floating your rate. I for one got all of my people locked prior to, but I am sure not every borrower out there with our company or others were as lucky. The good news is that rates should rebound again and everything will work out, but this is not always the case. Therefore the borrower and the loan officer must be smart when evaluating what is right for the client. Most of the time it is not worth it to risk floating if any nervousness is present.

When I say we monitor rates like a hawk, here is a small snippet of what I am talking about.
Shawn Von Talge does our company analysis of the MBS market and we are notified numerous times a day what is going on. The snippet below is an example:

You will notice my posts coming out a little later from this point forward. Why? Because with spreads this wide volatility as REALLY picked up so I want to get a sense of the DOW and other factors before sending out information. Yesterday marked a VERY up and down day and today (cross our fingers) has really been one directional since open (7am)…………..up! We currently just busted the 100-07 (STAGE 1) and are on our way to 100-10. This is 18 ticks higher from going out levels seen yesterday or (50% additional in yield). Again some other "great" signs to note are the fact that the 4.5%, 4.0%, and 3.5% coupons are all the vintages of choice with the 4% up 23 ticks and the 3.5% up 25 ticks. Again the plan remains the same………stay patient and look for the us to reach and surpass each stage little by little. Again just so you know what stages I am referring to I have outlined them below.

STAGE 1: 100-00
STAGE 2: 101-00
STAGE 3: 101-14
STAGE 4: 101-20
STAGE 5: 101-25
STAGE 6: 102-00

Could we have retracement………..yes we could and probably will but remember what I stated on my previous posts. When we hit levels like this before 11 out of the next 13 days saw higher prices and hence lower rates. So trust in the technicals, be patient and don't panic and these should work out. I personally want to see us gain back a little at a time. Why? Because lenders are more likely to transfer spreads and yields to us if we gain little by little rather than having just a monster day and gain it all back. If that happens they will most certainly hold significant yields back to gauge retracement risks and help with capacity issues. All of today's gains is coming in the wake of a DOW rally……………….a REALLY good sign.

So as you can see this stuff can get pretty technical and most of this means nothing to you, but if you deal with it everyday it makes sense. I wanted to illustrate this to you so you realize what goes into evaluating the market and what steps we take to protect our clients. It can never be 100% right, but it becomes absolutely critical information to a mortgage originator in today's market!

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Flat Branch Mortgage, Inc.