Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Mortgage Market Slowdown

I am an avid reader of our local newspaper, the Columbia Tribune. Every Saturday in the Business Times section they publish Deeds of Trusts that were recently recorded, all of which are public record. Well last Saturday September the 1st I saw something that absolutely astonished me! What was it? For the first time in 5 years of me actively reading this paper I noticed that there were only 22 Deeds of Trusts recorded for Boone County Missouri. Normally on a given Saturday there are at least 2 pages of recordings and in peak market conditions there have been as many has 4 or more pages. However, this past Saturday the Deeds of Trusts section only required about 1/5 of one page. This shocked me to say the least, have home sales fallen that much, is the Columbia market in this kind of shape, what has happened?

I have said time and again that both nationally and locally the mortgage market has seen better days. However, I had no idea we (Columbia, Missouri) were in this kind of predicament. What can we attribute this slowdown to; a large inventory of homes, the sub-prime meltdown, rising interest rates, slow job growth, a slowing economy, a stigma tied to the overall market, rising gas prices? To be honest with you this market is a little scary right now. The good news is the Federal Government finally recognizes the issue at hand and I believe will take the necessary steps to correct the housing meltdown. They have already begun the process of creating liquidity in the market place by reducing the discount window .5%, they are beginning the process of relaxing FHA guidelines to help individuals that have gotten caught in the sub-prime mess get on their feet again, they are planning reform for the sub-prime mortgage market, they have issued statements to help the secondary market relax. Will this be enough and is it too late?

You just can't "flip a switch" and correct the housing market. It will take time and consistent follow-through by the government, banks, wholesale lenders, mortgage companies, builders, real estate agents, appraisers and anyone else involved in the real estate community. Hopefully, the fed will reduce a key interest rate (federal funds rate) by at least .25% and maybe even .50% to help the market place. The next move is to reduce our inventory of homes currently on the market. The problem I see here is that it has been my experience that individuals who are in the market have a home to sell. The secondary market must make a concerted effort to purchase "mortgage backed securities", hopefully with the tightening lending guidelines and the influx of liquidity potential hedge funds will again start purchasing these mortgages. We has brokers must also be aware of what the market can bare and do our job professionally, ethically, and honestly. This means thinking of our clients first and our pocket books second. Much like Professional Mortgage Group's business model "The client for life" mentality.

Job growth and economic expansion are a leading attribute in fixing this problem. We must continue to build on our community both at the city, state and national level. Tax cuts for corporations, lowering gas prices, an ending to the war in Iraq what a nice thought that would be. How can average everyday people pay close to $3.00 a gallon for gas while quarterly profits for these companies are over $1 billion? How can we constitently give $50B-$300B in a war when we have real issues here in America. I do not know what the answer is that is left to individuals much smarter than me but am I the only one thinking of this? The American spirit has taken a blow and we must do our part to get it back! I've gotten a little off track here but you get my point. The American economy is VERY sensitive and "the American dream" of home ownership is at the very heart of what makes us a nation. I and Professional Mortgage Group are determined to be here for our community to help individuals achieve this dream!

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Your Columbia Missouri Mortgage Broker

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